How the Stars Aligned for Syria Rebels to Overthrow Assad

In a hurry? Here’s a quick summary…

• After 13 years of civil war, Syria’s opposition militias launched a surprise offensive, seizing Aleppo and advancing to Damascus, ending Assad’s rule.
• The rebels’ success was fueled by Assad’s weakened army and the withdrawal of Hezbollah and Russian support.

After 13 years of civil war, Syria’s opposition militias saw an opportunity to weaken President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power. About six months ago, they communicated plans for a major offensive to Turkey, feeling they had received its tacit approval. 

Just two weeks ago, their operation took off with surprising speed. The rebels first seized Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and within a week, they had advanced to Damascus, ending over five decades of Assad family rule.

The rebels’ lightning-fast advance was a result of a perfect storm of circumstances. Assad’s military was demoralized and exhausted, his main allies—Iran and Hezbollah—were weakened by conflicts elsewhere, and his other key military supporter, Russia, was distracted and losing interest. 

At the same time, Turkey, which had been a primary backer of the Syrian opposition, was notified of the plan. Turkey, despite supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA), considered one of the main factions in the alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist group due to its former ties with al-Qaeda.

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HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, were behind the offensive, but the operation was not without risk. Turkey had long opposed such a major rebel move, fearing it would trigger a new wave of refugees. 

Yet, earlier this year, the rebels sensed a shift in Turkey’s stance towards Assad after repeated failed diplomatic attempts. They presented their plan to Turkey, suggesting that their path was the only viable option.

As the operation unfolded, Turkey acknowledged that it had seen the rebels’ plans but denied giving explicit approval. While Turkey’s intelligence had monitored the situation, they claimed that HTS acted independently. 

Despite this, the rebels’ success took almost everyone by surprise. Assad’s army, already weak, was unable to mount an effective defense, and the military forces backing him—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—were stretched thin and unable to provide decisive support.

The rebellion’s success was swift, capturing key cities like Hama and Homs, and with Damascus falling, the regime’s power structure collapsed faster than expected. The rebels seized this opportunity when Assad was at his most vulnerable, and the regime’s weakening forces failed to recover. 

This marked a significant turning point in Syria’s civil war, with the Assad government crumbling more quickly than many had anticipated.

The withdrawal of Hezbollah’s elite fighters, who had been diverted to support Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel, further weakened Assad’s position. 

With this opportunity, the rebels pressed on, aiming for a fair fight, and managed to capitalize on the situation, presenting a major blow to Iran’s influence in the region.

Turkey, in turn, emerged as the strongest external player in Syria, with military troops on the ground and significant leverage over the rebel factions. 

By securing territory and pushing Kurdish forces back, Turkey achieved its objectives of curbing Kurdish power in northeastern Syria and consolidating its influence in the region. 

The rebel victory marked a decisive moment for Turkey’s President, Erdogan, positioning him as a key figure in the evolving Syrian conflict.